CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2022 AND A REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2022

The outlook for December 2022

December normally marks the cessation of the October-November-December (OND) “short-rains” season in Kenya. The forecast for the month of December indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience below-average (generally depressed) rainfall. However, near to below average rainfall is likely over some parts of Western and Northeastern Kenya. The rainfall distribution, both in time and space, is expected to be generally poor. The October- November-December (OND) 2022 seasonal rainfall is likely to cease between the second to fourth weeks of December over several parts of the country.

November 2022 review

Occasional rainfall was received over several parts of the country except the northeast, where stations experienced rainfall for less than ten days and the northwest, which remained generally dry except for one station that received light rainfall for two days. Several meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was less than 75% of their November LTMs (depressed rainfall). Malindi, Embu, Thika and Kericho are the only stations that recorded above normal rainfall (>125%) while Eastleigh, Dagoretti, Kakamega, Nyeri, Narok, Nakuru and Garissa recorded near average rainfall (76%- 125%). All the other stations recorded less than 75% of their November LTMs. Isolated storms were recorded over the southeastern lowlands, Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, and a few areas over northeast (Garissa). The distribution both in time and space was generally poor especially over the northern sector of the country.