SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MARCH, APRIL, MAY (MAM) 2024.

1 HIGHLIGHT
1.1 Outlook for March-April-May (MAM) 2024
Above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley,
Central, Northern and Southern Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi
County), Northeastern, Southeastern Lowlands, and Northwestern regions. Generally, near-average
rainfall with a tendency to above average rainfall is expected over the Coastal region and parts of the
Southeastern lowlands. Occasional storms are also likely to be experienced in some parts of the
country. The temperature forecast indicates that for the larger part of the country, the season is likely
to be warmer than average.
1.2 Review of the October-November-December (OND) 2023 Rainfall Season
Most stations across the country recorded above average rainfall except isolated stations over the
Central Rift Valley (Nakuru), Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyahururu), South-eastern lowlands
(Voi), Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale) and Northwest (Lodwar) that recorded near average
rainfall. The onset of the seasonal rainfall was during the third and fourth weeks of October, except
over a few areas over the Coast and Southeastern lowlands where onset was during the first week of
November and the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, Lake Basin and parts of the central and South
Rift Valley where rainfall continued from September. The distribution was good in October and
November and poor in December. The season was characterized by severe storms over the Coastal
region, Southeastern lowlands, Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Northeastern Kenya.
2 FORECAST FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2024 “LONG-RAINS” SEASON
2.1 Climatology
The March to May period is the major rainfall season (long rains) over most parts of Kenya and
much of equatorial Eastern Africa. The highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 300mm)
are normally received over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the
Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County)
and the Coastal Strip. Figure 1a illustrates the rainfall climatology during the March to May
rainfall season.
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2.2 Rainfall Outlook for March-April-May 2024 “Long-Rains” Season
The forecast for March-April-May 2024 “Long-Rains” season is based on the prevailing and expected
evolution of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) over the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic
Oceans as well as the synoptic, mesoscale, and local factors that affect the climate of Kenya. These
factors were assessed using various tools, including ocean-atmosphere models, statistical models,
satellite-derived information, and expert interpretation. The global drivers considered included the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
(QBO), Western North Pacific (WNP), and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
The forecast, as shown in Figure 1b, indicates that the anticipated above-average rainfall is
forecasted across various regions including the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift
Valley, Central, Northern and Southern Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including
Nairobi County), Northeastern and Southeastern Lowlands, and Northwestern regions. Generally,
near-average rainfall is expected over parts of the Coastal region. The peak of the rains is expected
to be in April for most regions, except over the Coastal Strip where it may not be realized until May.
Additionally, the temperature forecast indicates that for most of the country, the season is expected
to be warmer than average.