1.1 Outlook for March-April-May (MAM) 2024

Above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central, Northern and Southern Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), Northeastern, Southeastern Lowlands, and Northwestern regions. Generally, near-average rainfall with a tendency to above average rainfall is expected over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands. Occasional storms are also likely to be experienced in some parts of the country. The temperature forecast suggests that for the larger part of the country, the season is likely to be warmer than average.

1.2 Review of the October-November-December (OND) 2023 Rainfall Season

Most stations across the country recorded above average rainfall except isolated stations over the Central Rift Valley (Nakuru), Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyahururu), South-eastern lowlands (Voi), Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale) and Northwest (Lodwar) that recorded near average rainfall. The onset of the seasonal rainfall was during the third to fourth week of October except over a few areas over the Coast and Southeastern lowlands where onset was during the first week of November and the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, Lake Basin and parts of the central and South Rift Valley where rainfall continued from September. The distribution was good in October and November and poor in December. The season was characterized by severe storms over the Coastal region, Southeastern lowlands, Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Northeastern Kenya.