CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2024 AND A REVIEW OF OCTOBER 2024.
The Rainfall Outlook for November 2024
- November is typically the peak month for the October-November-December (OND) "short rains" season. The outlook for November 2024 indicates that the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, most of the Northwest, and isolated areas in the Northeast (particularly the western parts of Marsabit) are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall. In contrast, the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, the southeastern lowlands, and some areas in the Northeast are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall. Most of the Northeast and the coastal regions are likely to experience below-average rainfall. Rainfall distribution is expected to be poor, with isolated storms and dry spells over several parts of the country. Temperature is expected to be warmer than usual over the whole country with highest probabilities for warmer temperatures over the Central and Eastern parts of the country.
The Rainfall Review for October 2024
- The month of October marks the onset of the October-November-December (OND) short-rains season in Kenya. The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has been delayed over the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi County, where onset was expected during the third to fourth week of October. However, a few areas in some counties over Central Kenya and isolated areas over Southeastern lowlands (Machakos) received rainfall amounts that met the onset criteria, but this was followed by a dry spell making it a false onset. Rainfall over the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and Central Rift Valley occurred from September, as had been predicted. The rest of the country has not had an onset yet.
- Both maximum and minimum temperatures were warmer than the LTM over most parts of the country except over Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, where the maximum temperature was slightly cooler than normal, and the minimum temperature was near the October LTM.