Seasonal weather forecast October, November, December(OND) 2023

Outlook for October-November-December(OND) 2023

  • The “Short Rains” October-November-December (OND) season constitutes an important rainfall season in Kenya, particularly in the Central and Eastern regions of the country. The highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 700mm) are normally recorded over the Central highlands.

  • During OND 2023, it is expected that most parts of the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be fairly distributed in some areas and well distributed in others in both time and space. The forecast also indicates a high probability that some counties in the Northeastern region are likely to experience above-average rainfall.

  • This will be driven by warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean indicating the presence of El Nino conditions. According to most of the global climate models, El Nino conditions are likely to persist throughout the OND season.