TECHNICAL STATEMENT FROM THE TWELFTH NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (#NCOF12)

The March–April–May 2026 season, which marks the Long Rains period in Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa, is expected to bring near-average to above-average rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands both east and west of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the Rift Valley itself, and parts of northwestern Kenya, while the southeastern lowlands, northeastern areas, and parts of the northwest will likely see near-average to below-average rainfall, and the coastal region is forecast to receive below-average rainfall. The rains are anticipated to start normally or slightly late, with uneven distribution across time and space, intermittent dry spells, and occasional heavy downpours. Most regions should experience peak rainfall in April, except the Coast where the peak is expected in May.