The Climate Outlook for the October–December 2025 “Short Rains” season indicates that most parts of the northeast and Southeastern lowlands and Coastal region are expected to receive below average rainfall. The South and Central Rift Valley, most of the Lake Victoria region, parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi county, isolated parts over Southeastern lowlands (Kajiado) and western parts of Samburu and Marsabit counties are expected to receive near to below average rainfall. The Highlands West of the Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern are likely to receive near to above average rainfall.

The main driver of this outlook is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western equatorial Indian Ocean, commonly referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently developing into a negative phase and is expected to persist from September to November 2025 before returning to neutral in December. A negative IOD typically brings drier than normal conditions over East Africa, potentially suppressing rainfall during the short rains.