TECHNICAL STATEMENT FROM THE TWELFTH NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (#NCOF12)

The March–May 2026 period, Kenya’s main “Long Rains” season, is expected to bring near-average to above-average rainfall to the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands both west and east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the Rift Valley, and parts of northwestern Kenya. In contrast, near-average to below-average rainfall is forecast for the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern Kenya, and some northwestern areas, while the Coastal region is likely to receive below-average rainfall. The season may have uneven rainfall distribution, a normal to late onset, and intermittent dry spells, although occasional heavy rainfall events are possible. Peak rainfall is expected in April across most regions, with the Coast likely to peak in May.