The October–December 2025 “Short Rains” season is a key rainfall period for Kenya, particularly in the central and eastern regions. The climate outlook indicates that most of the Northeast, Southeastern lowlands, and Coastal areas are likely to experience below-average rainfall. Other regions including the South and Central Rift Valley, parts of the Lake Victoria basin, Nairobi, and surrounding counties may receive near to below-average rainfall, while the Highlands west of the Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya are expected to experience near to above-average rainfall. Rainfall distribution is expected to be erratic, characterized by prolonged dry spells and isolated storms.

The outlook is mainly influenced by the developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), projected to persist until November before returning to neutral conditions in December, typically leading to drier conditions in East Africa. Additionally, there is a 55–60% chance of La Niña developing during the season, which could further impact rainfall. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) will continue monitoring global climate drivers, with forecasts indicating high variability and localized disparities in rainfall patterns.